Card Counting in Hold 'Em?
My buddy Berk went to Mohegan Sun over the weekend and played their hybrid version of Texas Hold 'Em and blackjack. Hands are played like normal in hold 'em, but each player plays individually against the house kinda like blackjack. The house never folds, so you simply have to beat its hand. Only one deck is used. Players hands are face down, but no one stopped them from sharing some information about who had what. The betting is structured so that you ante to get your pocket cards. Then you either double your ante to see the flop or fold. At that point, you can raise or call for the turn and the river.
It does take some of the fun of bluffing and the other mind games out of it, but is there an opportunity to count here? Before you even have to bet for the flop, you know 12 of the 52 cards that the house cannot be holding. Anyone want to work some numbers out and take a trip to Mohegan to try it out?
posted by Dan Craig @ 2:08 PM
2 comments
2 Comments:
Yeah, it's hard to imagine that they'd start a new game without doing some kind of analysis to show that it's profitable and that they have a good strategy for avoiding counters.
That said, it doesn't like anything a good spreadsheet couldn't answer.
i don't quite understand the "ante"...does the player get this money back if they lose? if they win? can you place a small ante, double to see the flop, and then raise huge on the turn/river?
whatever the case, i have no doubt that Thomas in correct in saying that the house has already run the numbers assuming that the player has perfect information (which is not a very difficult calculation)...my general experience is that once you get beyond the Big 2 of craps and blackjack (where the house has a meaningful but relatively small advantage), the more Out There a game is (see poker, Pai Gow), the larger the edge the House has baked in.
That being said, I am working on a 3rd version of my blackjack model, this one will be the first that is done with a practical, rather than academic goal in mind...now if only i could find somebody to show up to work for me
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